Australian population to hit 40 million by 2050
Australia’s experience is following similar examples found elsewhere
There can be no doubt that some racial groups are overrepresented in welfare abuse, extortion, drug importation, gang crime, marriage rackets, visa abuse, insurance fraud and tax evasion; the big problem is that any attempt at discussion results in accusations of racism .
Australia’s population has more than doubled in 50 years, from 12 million in 1968, to over 26 million now. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates it will reach 30 million by 2030, and could reach 40 million by 2050.
While many developed countries are experiencing a population decline as birth rates fall, this country has been growing annually at 1.7%, the latest ABS figure for 2018 was 2% (around half a million) migrants.
World Bank data tells us the US and UK by comparison, are growing at around 0.7%, due to immigration, Canada by 1.2%. We were fortunate to have had an imposed pause, courtesy of the COVID 19 pandemic, at the recent rate the Australian population would have reached 40 million by 2050.
Unfortunately, that time to take stock is already compromised by a new NSW plan to have 2 million immigrants over the next 5 years.
The latest 2021 census showed a population doubling in 50 years to 25 million, with around half the population being first, or second- generation immigrants. The expansion is due to immigration, both legal and illegal, refugee, and humanitarian intake. Australia’s growth is part of a world-wide phenomenon, which seems to feature little despite it being fundamental in the global warming debate.
In 1974 the world’s population had reached 4 billion, 12 years later it had grown to 5 billion and a further 13 years later in 2012 it had reached 7 billion. There are signs of slowing growth as poverty declines, but a peak of around 10 billion by 2050 means a tripling of numbers in less than 100 years.
According to refugee activists Australia is castigated by the world for its lack of commitment to resettlement, whereas the Refugee Council of Australia rated refugee resettlement in 2016 at the 2nd in the world, on a per capita basis.
There is no recognition of the many countries that refuse to resettle refugees, these include Japan, China, Malaysia, Poland, Hungary (and increasingly other East European countries), Russia and several Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. The United Nations estimates 25 million refugees world-wide with 70 million displaced persons.
Countries closest to war zones carry the brunt, with Iran having 3 million refugees, Turkey 2.5 million, Lebanon 1.5 million and Pakistan 1.5 million. Bangladesh has
1 million Rohinga refugees from Myanmar. The other problem areas are the ongoing conflicts in Central and Eastern Africa with large camps established in Uganda and Kenya.
Those with money jump the queue of the United Nations resettlement programs and pay people smugglers to travel, via multiple countries, to those with better prospects. Some 10% of refugees fit the Geneva Convention definition, many once in a safe place, begin shopping for a more advantageous host country, then becoming illegal immigrants.
The handling of immigration by previous Labor Governments was described in 1997 by Barry Jones, a subsequent Minister and President of the party, as “less than distinguished”. Rather than considering the implications for the immigrants or resident Australians, the focus was on building up a long-term political constituency that would support the party.
This was reinforced by bringing in more supporters with family reunion schemes, many of which such as marriage scams, were bogus (spouse migration accounted for 40%, around one third of all marriages). Historically Australia’s total humanitarian and refugee intake was constant at around 20,000 annually, with around 6,000 being refugees; the number of refugees increased to 12,000 in 2018 at a cost of $200 million, and 18,000 in 2019.
The Labor party had planned a further increase to an eventual 32,000 with an estimated cost increase of $624 million, rising to $4.2 billion by 2028. The latest political upheaval in the Victorian Labor party shows how nothing has changed; the votes of recent immigrants are being bought and used illegally in branch-stacking.
When Labor dismantled the previous Government’s border protection policies in 2009, 50,000 illegal refugees were admitted over the next 5 years, refugees who had few relevant work skills, no English language, and no concept of the accepted behaviour.
The estimated bill for their subsequent detention is around $10 billion since 2013. The bill for 2017 alone was $4 billion, comprising $1 billion for offshore detention, $1 billion for border enforcement and around $1.5 billion for onshore detention. This equates to an average per person cost of $400,000 offshore, $250,000 onshore detention and $100,000 community support.
There were around 1,000 who were still in offshore in Manus and Nauru “incarceration” (their supposed torture had resulted in 40 pregnancies to local women) when the centre close in 2017.
Around 120 remain in detention on Manus, and a number are free in the community on Nauru, many have been moved to somewhat secretive detention in Australia and are still a source of activism.
They require health care, accommodation, and ongoing massive financial support; social problems have ensued as the released congregate in ghettos (euphemistically called enclave or clusters) and fail to integrate. Attempts are now being made to encourage a more regional distribution, attempts inevitably described as racist.
These substantial sums, and money spent on multicultural programs, could be better spent supporting those in need in this country. Even if ultimately deemed economic migrants the lengthy review process means delay in deportation — in 2019 there were 40,000 cases awaiting the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, with regular repeat appeals slowing the process.
In Germany the situation is just as dire, with 240,000 illegal immigrants having exhausted the deportation appeal process, not being removed. The UK sees about 70,000 illegal immigrants annually and, as in Australia, the problem lies with the deportation process which is undermined by perpetual legal appeals.
The latest figures from 2019 show an estimated 6,000 cases filed annually, with a backlog of more than 60,000 cases awaiting settlement by The Australian Appeals Tribunal. The legal profession would say “justice delayed is justice denied” and demand more resources, but the reality is that the cost of delay to the country is infinitely more than the cost of extra resourcing.
Australia’s domestic problems have been fuelled also by high numbers of legal immigration, peaking at an annual level of around 200,000, now falling back to a target of around 160,000 as the costs of settlement are affecting the budget.
With tightening of requirements, the citizenship figures for 2018-2019 came in at under 140,000, although this figure underestimates the true situation with an estimated 600,000 per year on student and temporary visas. Of those admitted under skilled migration schemes, two thirds are family members and not workers.
One reason for maintaining this high intake was to resolve the problem of an ageing population with a low birth rate, this approach fits well with a Ponzi scheme, the ageing population problem will be larger but postponed. Recent ABS statistics showed 28% of Australian citizens were born overseas, much higher than Canada (22%), UK (13%), or US (14%).
The associated crime, unemployment and welfare dependency are typical makers of the ghetto. In the recent COVID 19 pandemic clusters of infection in Melbourne have also been noted in high immigrant areas; St Albans and Kings Park being majority Vietnamese, Travancore majority Chinese, Roxburgh Park Iraqi, and Jakana for Indians. Despite this lack of integration, a survey of social cohesion in 2018 still suggested 85% of Australians viewed multiculturalism positively.
Australia’s experience is following similar examples found elsewhere.
Douglas Murray in his book “The strange death of Europe” noted similar no-go areas have developed in European Cities. The 2011 UK census showed the Muslim population had increased from 1.5 to 2.7 million in a decade.
The indigenous population of London has fallen to 45%; cities like Bradford and Birmingham have majority Muslim populations with introduction of some degree of Sharia Law. The British life-style has been eradicated in these areas, encouraged by the cultural elite’s pursuit of multiculturalism and dismissal of Western ideals.
The proportion of citizens born overseas has steadily increased in UK, Europe and the US and is around 15%, by comparison Australia’s rate is around 30%, hardly a xenophobic level; for Japan the figure is 2%, China 0.1%, India 0.4%, only Singapore has a comparable rate. This rapid expansion has resulted in a dilution of the traditional Western Culture and added to the loss of its religious base.
The same problems beset Europe where immigrant numbers have been even greater; the foreign- born population has doubled since 1980, with 50% of that increase since 2000. Two thirds of these immigrants are from the Middle East and North Africa and support for this policy has been exhausted. An IPSOS poll in 2016 showed only 36% in UK, 24% in Sweden, 18% in Germany and 10% in Italy, France and Belgium continued to view this situation positively.
The situation in Sweden has taken a turn for the worse, their benign immigration policy and welfare philosophy has resulted in the highest per capita influx in Europe, mainly from Arabic and African countries.
Despite their small number (less than 5%) they have produced a crime wave, making up 58% of total crime, 73% of murder, manslaughter, and attempted murder – the murder rate has quadrupled, and 70% of robberies. Deportation is now belatedly on the agenda.
A Monash University poll suggested 43% of Australians viewed immigration as too high; a News Poll gave a much higher result at 72%. Our country still has a chance to avoid the problems produced by rapid growth and non-integration, all it requires is the political will to withstand the inevitable racism campaigns which would follow.
Under Donald Trump, the US had attempted to limit immigration reducing legal numbers to 500,000 and by better control of its Southern border. The advent of the Biden Government has meant the doors are open once again, with vast numbers coming from Mexico and many countries further South – the greatest numbers in 20 years. With these influxes come welfare and crime problems as seen internationally.
Scandinavian countries, with their high levels of welfare, have become targets for immigrants. Both Sweden and Norway have experienced immigrant related crime and social disruption, in Sweden a new right-wing Government has been elected to control immigration.
Denmark has been overwhelmed by the immigration problem, with 8% of the population now immigrants (5% Muslim), consuming 40% of the welfare budget, that figure rising rapidly. As well as cost considerations they are now facing a crime wave; the crime rate among the native born is 13 per 1,000, compared with 54 per 1,000 non- native -born and 113 per 1,000 amongst Somali immigrants.
Those from Morocco, Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan also feature adversely in statistics. Other disturbing statistics show a 140% higher crime rate in second generation Muslims; Muslim men are 26 times more likely to commit rape. Other drains on resources include a lower work rate, higher unemployment claims, higher childbirth rate, marriage fraud and increased identity fraud. Denmark now requires a crime free 9-year residency period with adequate language proficiency.
Crime statistics in many countries are disturbing; the UK, Germany and other European countries have experienced an increase in rape and sexual assault but there is a reluctance to reveal the facts. In the UK Midlands a surge in these crimes, dating from 2004 to 2011 eventually resulted in criminal charges of over 20 Muslim men in 2019, involving a staggering 1400 cases.
A study on domestic violence in the 1990’s showed women married to Muslim men were eight times more likely to be killed by their husbands. There are 15 cases of illegal genital mutilation per day in the UK Muslim population. In Germany the surge in immigrants led to a mass sexual assault in Cologne in 2015; asylum seeker crimes have increased to 8% of the total with politicians and police concealing information in the interest of “racial harmony”.
Illegal immigration is a major problem in the US, with estimates of between 12 and 24 million (4 to 8% of the population, mainly entering via Mexico: not only Mexicans but others from South America and elsewhere. Los Angeles County records showed around 40% of workers were illegals, working for cash and paying no taxes.
Ninety- five per cent of murder warrants, 75% of most wanted warrants, 50% of gang members and 29% of the prison population were illegals. Seventy per cent of births, paid for by the tax payer, were to illegals. Not surprisingly both previous Democrat Presidents Obama, and Clinton, talked about building a wall across the border, Donald Trump is actually doing it.
Australia has had similar denial problems with Sudanese refugees in Victoria. Statistics (finally released) from 2015 to 2018 show this group are 25 times more likely to commit burglary, 50 times more likely to rob, 12 times more likely to commit serious assault, and 32 times more likely to riot. The New South Wales prison population is 28% immigrant. Violent crime increased by 700% between 1964 and 1993, with a disproportionate immigrant representation.
The ever-increasing threat of Islamic terrorism among immigrants has, so far, been kept to a minimum thanks to increasing Police activity, it is a matter of time before the European experience comes here and major events occur. In Europe in 2016 over 70% of terrorist activity was Islamic-based, 10% the IRA, a small percent due to anarchists and the much publicised far- right causing virtually none.
Politicians are reluctant to address these facts because of fear of being labelled racist, this head-in-the-sand approach is likely to lead to lead to an increasing right-wing backlash. Subtle changes in ethnicity have occurred, with increasing numbers coming from India, and other Asian countries such as The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.
Welfare abuse is also common, adding to the cost.
A study from Germany in 2010 showed 14% of immigrants were unemployed, with 53% of Lebanese, 46% of Iraqis and 28% of Afghans leading the way; compare this with a rate of 45 for Hong Kong or 3% for South Africa. This was before the arrival of 1.5 million extras in 2017.
Australia has similar problems with an unemployment rate of 25% of those from non-English speaking backgrounds, (with two thirds of them making no attempt to find work), compared with 2% of English speakers (ABS statistics).
A Gillard Government survey of immigrants from 2001 to 2011, many on humanitarian visas, found an unemployment rate of 63% for those from the Middle East and North Africa, meanwhile an undeclared black economy avoids paying taxes. In the last decade there were 1.85 million new jobs created but net overseas migration was 2.25 million; over that period the number of unemployed increased by 220,000.
Australian data for 2019 showed 77% of refugees were jobless one year after arrival, with 22% still jobless after a decade; comparative figures show a 2% unemployment rate for those from South Africa or UK. The reality is that every dollar spent on immigrants/refugees is a dollar not spent on improving the lot of the indigenous in poverty.
This country has a relative advantage with its isolation but, even with restoration of border protection, the people smugglers have not given up. Since 2013, 32 vessels with 800 on board have been intercepted and returned to their countries of origin.
With the support of the Greens, the Labor party introduced a new law allowing transfers from offshore detention on medical grounds, a concept that was rapidly gamed to allow entry into this country and access to the lengthy appeal process.
Fortunately, the potential to encourage further “backdoor” boat arrivals has now been thwarted by the Act’s repeal, but the election of the new Labor Government has seen an increased number of boats setting sail from Sri Lanka, numbers remaining undisclosed. There remain problems in deporting those deemed not to be refugees, or convicted of crimes, the home- affairs Minister is regularly over-ruled by Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
Health care costs are another ignored aspect of immigration. In Australia the average birth rate was 1.8 per family but, during the COVID pandemic, has fallen to an all-time low at 1.5; this compares with rates of 1.3 in France, and Italy at 1.0, but unfavourably with immigrants from Lebanon at 4, Syria at 3.4 and Iraq at 2.8.
Muslim immigrant numbers are declining but the birth rate means an increase in total numbers—and costs for health education and welfare. These statistics have been known for 40 years and remain unaddressed by politicians.
The downsides of cost of housing, health, education, and unemployment, are compounded by increased crime, social disruption, congestion in cities and increased potential for terrorism. These are supposedly balanced by the wonders of multiculturalism and an increased contribution to the economy.
As long ago as 1995 Harvard economists repudiated this theory and, apart from the adverse effect on social cohesion, found a resulting downward pressure on pay rates for unskilled jobs. A Migration Watch survey in 2014 estimated immigration had cost the UK around 3,000 pounds ($6,000) per person annually.
Another study, from University College London, suggested the bill added up to at least 115 billion pounds (around $300 billion) between 1995 and 2011.
It is time for politicians to address the realities of cost of immigration to the economy, disruption to society, lack of integration, and the ever-increasing threat of imported terrorism. If climate-changers are to be believed, these threats are compounded by the climate increasing droughts producing a limit on total population the country can support.
There can be no doubt that some racial groups are overrepresented in welfare abuse, extortion, drug importation, gang crime, marriage rackets, visa abuse, insurance fraud and tax evasion; the big problem is that any attempt at discussion results in accusations of racism.
Citizenship should only be awarded to those who can speak English, are self-supporting, have not broken any laws and have lived in the country for at least 5 years. For all others deportation, without endless legal appeal, should be the solution.
Recently the COVID 19 virus has brought immigration to an end; this is the breathing space we needed to assess its risks and benefits; it also brought an end to education programs which often ended up as backdoor immigration.
Federal treasury continues to support high immigration on economic grounds, despite the financial, social cohesion and infrastructure constraints it imposes.
The latest Intergenerational Report assesses population growth to between 37 and 49 million (not exactly a precise estimate) if the same trajectory continued; if net migration were close to zero, low birth rates would mean the numbers would remain around 25 million.
The original Government plan for 2021/22 was for a reduced intake of 80,000 skilled workers, but as we unwind from the economic strictures of COVID, and we have no back-packers or short- term visas, labour and skills shortages are again appearing. Rather than train the unemployed to do those missing jobs, or give incentives to lure retirees back to work, the easy option is to increase skilled immigration.
Big business and the Labor Government were talking about 220,000 immigrants in 2023, that number increasing almost daily; currently figures discussed are around 500,000, with additional students, tourists, and skilled workers, to cope with what may prove to be short term shortages if recession sets in.
We now also have an extra cohort of refugees from the end of the Afghan War and Hong Kong. There is no doubt there are unskilled jobs unfilled in hospitality, farming etc, the problem is how to improve the participation rate and incentivise our unemployed to fill them.
At current rate of growth, Treasury has estimated an Australian population of 39 million by 2050. The NSW public service has now come up with an increase of 2 million over the next 5 years, the same as the population of Perth or Brisbane.
This madness is not supported by surveys, with two thirds of Australians wanting a reduced, not increased, intake, and 20% wanting nil immigration; greater numbers will recommence the strain on infrastructure, roads, health, and education, as well as increase the potential for social disruption.
Prime Minister John Howard once said “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come”; decisions should be for the country’s good, not internal or external vested interests.